What’s happening
The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in October. Early forecasts point to a modest bump—slightly larger than this year’s 2.5%.
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimate: 2.7% (matching its August outlook)
- Independent policy analyst Mary Johnson: 2.8%, assuming some inflation momentum continues
Both projections are based on the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) readings for July–September, compared with the same months last year.
What that could mean for your check
- At 2.7%, the average retired worker benefit would rise by about $54/month.
- At 2.8%, the increase would be roughly $54.70/month.
Important: Any COLA gain could be partially or fully offset if Medicare Part B premiums rise in 2026, as expected.
Why COLA moves (and when it’s final)
COLA is designed to help benefits keep pace with inflation. SSA calculates it using the CPI-W for Q3 (July–September). The official figure is usually released in October, and the increase takes effect with January benefits (paid in January).
What you can do now
- Review your budget: Model both 2.7% and 2.8% scenarios so you’re prepared either way.
- Plan for premiums: Set aside room for a possible Part B increase.
- Prioritize essentials: If there’s only a small net gain, focus added dollars on housing, food, and medications first.
- Track updates: We’ll publish the official COLA figure as soon as it’s announced.
Source note: Projections referenced here reflect reporting as of Sept. 12, 2025 (e.g., estimates from TSCL and commentary from Mary Johnson). Final COLA is set by SSA in October.
Leave a Reply